Sunday, February 27, 2011

Game of ladder and Snake

I couldn't get any apt title other than this though it is not the game which I am going to talk.

There are times in life when you pick something as a void filler and eventually you get addicted to it. And that becomes an annoying necessity, you want to get rid of it and then land up into doing something else to deviate your mind out of it and cycle begins. You pick one activity, get addicted, try to come out of it, pick something else and so.
  Usual addiction list goes like – comics as kid; story books/TV/sports as a teenager; sitcoms/movies/novels  in early 20’s; money/social interaction for rest of life (I suppose).  I too followed a similar cycle but have still retained some ‘void fillers’ like books/movies, but not as a addiction. Couple of months back what started as a innocent attempt of deviating mind from situation of not doing anything I landed up in share market. I also got the fact that what may seem ridiculous at some point of time become a fantastically awesome object of attention. There were days when I was of the view of share market as a monkey business like what the stories says below and there is (or shall I again say was) time I liked it for sheer thrill and suspense of luck factor. Well, almost by now the interest in share market has faded and I am back with the books and movies.

“The famous story goes like - ' There was a village where there was plenty of monkey and people where annoyed by the damage they were making on regular basis. A clever guy came from town (not sure why clever guys always come from town, as if shrewd people are not in village) and he brought a business plan for the villagers. He told sell me monkey for 10 Rupees each. People first doubted why he is paying for monkeys when he can catch it himself. He told about absence of resources to him and hiring a outside hand will cost him more (much like the way IPO comes to collect funds from people rather than going to banks to get loan). And the medicinal importance and usage in pharmaceutical industry of Monkey and convinced everyone about demand. People started catching monkey and delivering to the guy, who kept them in cage made specifically for this. Time came when the monkey openly available were much lower in number leading to no seller of Monkey’s. The town guy increased the offer price to 15 rupees for each monkey and at the same time brought one helper to manage the monkeys. Villagers tried hard and got him whatever monkeys were left . And finally a stage was reached with  no more of monkeys left in the village or nearby area, hence no supply but demand still exist. The town guy told to people that he is still in need of almost same amount of monkeys which villagers have caught  so far and is ready to pay 50 rupees as he is badly in need of completing the target.

After giving out this offer he told he has some work so he will go to town and will come back in month time. In the meantime if villagers can catch any monkey they can deliver to his helper and he will pay out money once he is back. Once he left, the helper went to people and told they can buy monkey from him at the rate of 30 rupees and later can sell the monkey's to his boss when he returns. And he will tell his boss that all the monkey ran away from the cage which he bought earlier. People still saw a profit of 20 rupees for nothing and gladly bought the monkeys from the helper. After all transaction completed, helper left the town in the darkness of night leaving behind village and people to never return. Villagers kept waiting and no one turned and what they were left were just the monkey. Possibly same is the case of Indian share market, a perfect example of monkey business with operators and FII'S acting as the clever chaps who make money and leave leaving behind the retailers losing money and sleep after losing out.”

I guess anecdote itself has gone beyond the word limit that my main post will be smaller than the main content. hehe

Off late have been monitoring the monkey business, but like anything and everything I have eventually bored with this too and thought this is the best time to pen down before I miss out on my interesting notes in time.
  • Contrary to investment honcho’s saying the market doesn’t run on the fundamentals, it runs on pure sentiments. Else they wouldn’t have had been sitting and giving lectures.
  • One person profit can be coming from miseries of many other people, and still one can’t be blamed for other’s loss. It’s all about choices and coming up with the stop loss.
  • No matter what criteria you select you ought to make losses in 50% stocks you select. Luck prevails. Industry P/E, EPS, Book Value/ Company book/ DEBT all are useless.
  • Share market can fall down by more points than it can rise in even coming 1 week consolidated value.
  • If you think that you are the most intelligent person by investing in particular firm you will repent later. Shares which you sold as useless will reach 300% and the shares which you thought are good with positivity around can fall by 50% values.
  • And last but not the least if you are investing the money, forget the money completely else you will definitely come out with loss.
You can almost see the shameless big shot investment executive who would be talking about 10% points increase of sensex/NIFTY one day and can come with contradictory theory by week end if the market crashes they would be the first one to change their statement saying market will be crashing by 30-40%. And they call it as correction and consolidation. haha
It’s a fantasy game and can’t be called as a business.

Wanted to save it till the last, very often have seen people coming with posts on the message board saying this -

"as soon as I bought  any particular script the price of continually upward moving script started plunging and soon hit the abyss. Alas! If I could have bought it at this lowest price, I would have had made huge profit

or this -

"Damn! As soon as I sold the non-moving script, seems the resistance was lost on it and increased at rate of 5% every day, as if it had enemity with me having the stock".


And well I am no exception, in fact I went extra mile and was thinking on idea  : to charge the companies for not letting me buy any stock or to charge them for selling all the stocks which I own for their company so that they can grow leap and bound. hehehe

Well to end, I have another say. To be happy and keep the money always around either give it to friend or put it in fixed deposits and if you want to lose (or make quick bucks with remote chances) then put it in share market. Long live Market!

P.S. – Usual Sentence. A Cliché’